Pipeline forecasting sounds like a finance exercise, but at its core it is simple: a realistic estimate of how much you will close, and when. Here is how it works and how to keep it honest.
Pipeline vs forecast
Your pipeline is every open deal added up. Your forecast is what you actually expect to win from it. The two are very different numbers, because not every open deal closes.
Why weighting matters
A weighted forecast multiplies each deal by its probability of closing. A 10,000 pound deal at the proposal stage with a 50 percent chance counts as 5,000 pounds, not 10,000. Add those weighted values up and you get a far more realistic picture than a raw pipeline total, which always flatters you.
Keep your stages and probabilities honest
- Define what each stage actually means, so a deal only moves when something real has happened.
- Set probabilities based on how deals at that stage have closed before, not optimism.
- Move or close out stale deals rather than letting them inflate the number.
Why it is worth the effort
A trustworthy forecast tells you whether you will hit target while there is still time to do something about it. A pipeline full of stale, over-optimistic deals tells you nothing. Leadey tracks deals on a board with weighted, probability-based forecasting, so the number you see is one you can act on.
